WiMAX Prospect in China..

In April, Yankee Group announced at WiMAX World Asia that the Chinese WiMAX market will reach 8.39 million users in 2011, almost 7 times the 1.25 million users as forecasted for 2009 (the first year of significant WiMAX development in China). Of the 8.39 million users in 2011, nomadic and portable broadband access users will lead the Chinese market, accounting for 46% of the market in 2011. Mobile broadband and low-cost fixed wireless access services will come in second and third, accounting for 43% and 11% of the market, respectively.

According to the joint research report by Yankee Group and its China-based partner, Analysys International, WiMAX in China: 2007 to 2011 Outlook and Forecast, if the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) does not embrace WiMAX and create a mobile WiMAX policy soon, the Chinese market will miss the mobile WiMAX opportunity. If this were to happen, Yankee Group and Analysys International believe it will have significant implications for Chinese vendors such as Huawei and ZTE, which are among the front-runners in mobile WiMAX development in China. MII has yet to allocate mobile spectrum, which signals to the industry that MII has not committed to mobile WiMAX development in China. The key for MII to accelerate mobile WiMAX policy development is to demonstrate to local governments how Chinese companies can benefit from mobile WiMAX.

“Embracing connectivity solutions and standards such as mobile WiMAX in emerging markets like China is critical to competing in the continuously evolving global communications industry,” said XJ Wang, vice president of Yankee Group Asia-Pacific Research. “Without China’s participation, the global WiMAX ecosystem will not be complete.”

Although the big four in China—China Netcom, China Unicom, China Mobile and China Telecom—are not rushing WiMAX deployment, Yankee Group and Analysys International find that the smaller players and other municipal WiMAX providers are pushing for an aggressive WiMAX strategy in China despite their financial challenges. Considering the important roles of these smaller players, it is recommend that key members of the WiMAX Forum invest in WiMAX deployment in China.

Note:

The people of Yankee Group are the global connectivity experts™—the leading source of insight and counsel for builders, operators and users of connectivity solutions. For nearly 40 years, Yankee Group has conducted primary research that charts the pace of technology change and its effect on networks, consumers and enterprises. Yankee Group was named Official Industry Analyst for ITU Telecom World 2006. Headquartered in Boston, Yankee Group has a global presence, including operations in North America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, Latin America and Asia-Pacific.

WiMAX Application Strategy in China..

WiMAX Forum as an organization to push the global application of 802.16 standard device, is actively organizing the interoperability tests of devices in all large system companies. Currently, WiMAX forum memebers include Intel, Siemens, British Telecom and ZTE, Huawei in China, more than 100 companies. Based on the plan made by Intel, one of the main members of WiMAX Forum, it publishes chips in the end of 2004 and realizes outdoor installation in the beginning of 2005 and indoor installation at the end of the same year. In 2006 WiMAX chip is embedded in notebook to realize its portability. With the maturation of the standard and the support of many big companies, it is helpful the realize the large scale and low cost of WiMAX technology. WiMAX will become a very powerful element to push forward the wireless broadband market. Therefore, making corresponding WiMAX application strategy is urgent for the development of operators and China Telecom industry.

WiMAX technology application strategy must be based on the existing and planned wireless networks. Because with the advantages of large transmission distance, high data rate, data and voice high quality services, and less restrictions on conditions, especially in the areas that telephone line and cable can not cover, WiMAX is very promising. The more important thing is that WiMAX not only has the advantage of traditional wideband access based on fiber and the flexibility and mobility of wireless access, but also provides the QoS support of fulfilling voice and video service applications, which makes WiMAX technique with the tent to take the place of 3G and WiFi.

The following table 1 gives the comparison between WCDMA and WiMAX. It is obvious that WiMAX and 3G have a lot of overlapping functionality and big competition, but they focus on two quite different fields of MAN and WAN seperately. They have different markets as complement for each other in netowrk arthitecture. From the perspective of WiMAX development situation, there is no direct competition between WiMAX and 3G, because although 802.16e support mobility, it is only for the roaming between wireless access system and base station. And it is not realistic to introduce 802.16e in the near future. So after the establishment of 3G network, 802.16e technique can be used as supplement. But the concrete effect of the condition of 802.16e, especially when 3G has had substantive progress and operators and device vendors have investigated a lot in 3G. We cannot expect these operators to give 3G up, and currently HSDPA technique has already been mature, which will futher limit the development of WiMAX.

Similarly compared with WiFi, the advantages of WiMAX is more obviously. as shown in table 2. But WiFi an WiMAX solve the problems of "the last 100 meters" and "the last 1 km" separately, which make them used in different fields. WiFi can use outdoor antenna making use of WiMAX to connect directly with backbone network, but not use access point to connect with wired network and then with backbone network. This largely reduces the cost of deployment of wired network. In this way, WiFi and WiMAX can develop simutaniously as complement for each other.

Furthermore, China has large area which involves various kinds of propagation environments and service needs. Based on WiMAX features of high data rate and large coverage, mix WiMAX technique and existing WiFi and 3G, there are overall considerations, such as

1. WiFi and WiMAX networks can be constructed simutaniously to reduce the investment of wired network; In areas without WiFi, users can access directly into WiMAX for data services.


2. In areas where telephone line and fiber can hardly cover, make use of WiMAX to construct wireless networks. Based on different operators' networks, in areas with weak backbone network, make use of WiMAX broadband access services as supplement of wired broadband access.


3. After the completion of 802.16e, WiMAX can ensure high data rate access in low speed mobility. Then it becomes the powerful complement of 3G network.


4. For temperary communication and large area wireless access, such as exhibition, WiMAX can be a guarantee of access.

After all, we want to establish a mixture network of 3G/WiFi/WiMAX broadband access, multi-layers, seamless coverage, co-operating network, fulfilling the as many requirements of users, and ensuring the fast development of China communication industry.

Currently the WiMAX technology is still not very mature, there is still some uncertainty in the future of WiMAX. For example, it is not an easy case to distribute spectrum in every country. But it is for sure that WiMAX will bring big opportunity and challenge to China telecom industry. The in-depth reseach of this field will be the strong base of wide future develpment for high speed network users and providers.

Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) landscape for WiMAX

A fundamental reality of the tech world is that companies have become increasingly specialized, with each building only a small chunk of any functionality that is needed by consumers. So their products must interact with each other, but without the discipline imposed by common ownership and management. This brings us to the concept of standards, the term given to the mechanisms by which the different participants in a market communicate, coordinate, and cooperate. In the tech context it usually means a specification for organizing and transmitting information.

As of September 2006, there were more than 1,500 patents distributed among 330 companies on WiMAX technologies. Of the 23 companies that hold more than ten patents, 74% are WiMAX Forum members. Nowadays more and more products become WiMAX Forum Certified™ and additional patent holders join the Forum.

There are some key findings in the IPR research:

• As a result of the IPR and market shift, Qualcomm will likely produce WiMAX plus cellular 3G multi-mode chips.
• IPR disputes for WiMAX/4G will be a less costly concern than in cellular. The positions of IPR stake holders with respect to both current and future versions of WiMAX as it evolves towards 4G, IMT-Advanced will influence royalties.
• Trends and consolidation among smaller players indicates further acquisitions by the larger players such as Intel, Qualcomm, Samsung and Motorola, who will strongly influence the overall IPR costs.
• Qualcomm's position in 802.16e-2005 is limited but patent trends indicate a stronger position for a few areas of development that will become increasingly important: “Smart Wireless Network” topology, multimode, video multi-casting and other advances and extension fields of development will strongly impact 4G.
• Wi-Lan, an IPR corporate licensor, has early agreements for WiMAX and related licenses with Redline, Cisco and Nokia, which set early benchmarks for commercial precedents of IPR agreements. This represents the limited direct commercial or legal precedent yet available for establishing IPR licensing trends in the emerging field.
• The report reveals trends in developing technology that are critical to evolution of WiMAX and 4G LTE products and markets. These developments will help to differentiate vendors that, in turn, help decide success or failure for 4G systems and device suppliers.
• Convergence between WiMAX/802.16 plus 802.22, and 3GPP/3GPP2 cellular is taking place in core link technologies, which will increasingly be based on MIMO-OFDM/OFDMA modulation schemes. The envelope of wireless invention (IPR) is being pushed in the “enhancement” technologies including MIMO-OFDMA and smart networking methods that leverage the core link platform to greater advantage.
• Patent activity has accelerated, particularly in the areas mentioned. MIMO-OFDM/OFDMA activity has dominated recent patent application and publishing.
• A few large companies file for large numbers of patents. Many of these can be characterized, as Qualcomm has pointed out, as “fractional” or derivative patents. The report discusses how important the “numbers game” is in estimation of IPR portfolio value.
• Several “WiMAX pure plays” who have been instrumental in standards development efforts have filed comparatively few patents in 4G/WiMAX. However, being closely tied to the standards, the research evaluates the essential nature of their holdings.
• WiMAX and other applications of MIMO-OFDM based systems marks a demarcation between it and prior fields of wireless development. The “evolution” from prior cellular systems is not achieved at a wireless link interface level that is necessary for transition of a majority of prior technology patents.
• Essential patents in the field are held by a large number of companies. But some consolidation has taken place through acquisitions. Some patents have not been reassigned to the acquiring company. The research database has categorized patents based on current holders.
• Some fundamental and essential patents on OFDM and MIMO go back several years. In some cases, the companies involved in important areas of early development are not those now considered wireless telecommunications industry dominant market leaders.
• Trends in competitive product developments and projections for new products are discussed.
• Competitive positions and moves are analyzed for impact on about five years forecasting of developments.
• Prospective acquisitions, partnering, pooling, and other activity can be learned from a study and is briefly discussed in the report of the database analysis.
• The guidelines for determining fair and reasonable royalty rates for WiMAX are analyzed based on what is considered fair and reasonable for similar fields of development, particularly in context for standardsbased developments.
• “Fair and reasonable” agreements of standards groups are often contested.
• Surveys show that service providers want certainty. A reasonable cost for IPR paid in royalties or cost of goods is acceptable. Disruption of business is not desired.
• Interviews with IPR holders indicate that they want/expect reasonable compensation for R&D: either reasonable royalties or expressed in the cost of goods sold; in their position in the market.
• The WiMAX/LTE 4G Intellectual Property Rights (IPR) Policy & Market Report has identified:
  o Over 550 patents that are essential to WiMAX 4G.
  o The number of “fundamental” patents is lower than 20.
  o The total number of patents that relate directly to the field that are contained in the Maravedis database is 2,060.
  o The number of patents including related areas of OFDM such as DVB/DVB-H and FH-OFDM and related segments of wireless development such as CDMA and 802.11 related to OFDM is 3,520.

WiMAX Product Aspects..

The ultimate goal of the WiMAX Forum is to accelerate the introduction of cost-effective broadband wireless access services into the marketplace. Standards-based, interoperable solutions enable economies of scale that, in turn, drive price and performance levels unachievable by proprietary approaches, making WiMAX Forum Certified™ products cost-effective at delivering broadband services on a wide scale. Designed for carrier-class deployments as well as low-cost, license-exempt deployments, WiMAX Forum Certified™ systems deliver high-capacity service throughput (up to 36 Mbps in a 10MHz channel) and provide a range of up to five kilometers in near to non-line-of-sight conditions. The systems are scalable for up to thousands of users, and because they are interoperable, service providers will be able to purchase equipment from more than one vendor, thereby reducing the overall risk and creating a price-competitive marketplace.

For enterprises, WiMAX can provide a cost-effective broadband access alternative. Since most businesses are not zoned for cable, their only option for broadband service is from the local telco, creating a monopoly situation. The ease of deployment for WiMAX Forum Certified™ systems can benefit enterprises by bringing new competition into the marketplace and lowering prices, or by enabling enterprises to set up their own private networks. This is especially relevant for industries like gas, mining, agriculture, transportation, construction and others that operate in remote locations.
For some residential customers in suburban and rural areas (where DSL or cable modem service is not available), WiMAX can provide the ability to finally have the broadband access they need. This is particularly true in developing countries, where traditional telecom infrastructure is not readily accessible.

The first generation of WiMAX Forum Certified™ CPEs are outdoor-installable subscriber stations akin to a small satellite dish. These became available in 2005 and are priced around $500. The second generation of CPEs are indoor self-installable modems similar to a cable or DSL modem and are priced around $300. Third-generation CPEs will be integrated into laptops and other portable devices, are expected to initially cost approximately $100 and are expected to be available in 2007.

WiMAX Development in other Asian Countries..

The WiMAX Forum, an industry-led non-profit organization comprising more than 460 companies committed to promoting and certifying interoperable WiMAX products, on June 21st announced establishment of the WiMAX Forum Japan Office in conjunction with appointment of Japan Director and Vice Directors by the WiMAX Forum.

Japan plays a key role in mobile communication technologies and services and is also expected to lead next-generation mobile broadband services. The Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) has completed the regulatory work for the 2.5 GHz broadband wireless access and also announced the draft license policy on May 15.

Given this regulatory situation and the high demands from the Japanese member companies of the WiMAX Forum, the WiMAX Forum decided to establish the Japan Office and also appointed its director and vice directors for managing all of the WiMAX Forum activities in Japan, particularly for addressing regulatory and marketing challenges.

"I will act as local representative for the WiMAX Forum to help make mobile broadband a reality in Japan by working with equipment vendors and operators to develop interoperable telecommunication services," said Dr. Tadao Saito, WiMAX Forum Japan Director.

The WiMAX Forum Japan Office is the fourth office of the WiMAX Forum after its offices in US, China and India. The Japan Director and Vice Directors appointed by the WiMAX Forum are as follows: Japan Director Dr. Tadao Saito, Professor Emeritus at the University of TokyoVice Director of Technology Dr. Kenji Kohiyama, Professor at Keio UniversityVice Director of Operations Dr. Takashi Shono, Executive Researcher of Intel K.K.

We can see that Asian countries are taking a major part in WiMAX standard, which will also accelerate the WiMAX application globally.

WiMAX License will be Awarded soon in Taiwan..

The National Communications Commission in Taiwan said that it has received thirteen applications for the six WiMAX licenses that will be awarded next month, according to a Dow Jones report. Among the companies that applied for licenses in the frequency band 2.5 ~ 2.69 GHz included Taiwan’s largest telecom operator Chunghwa Telecom, Far EasTone Telecommunications and Taiwan Mobile. The next step in the application process is for the NCC to question each applicant’s business plan and then a final selection of qualified bidders will proceed to auction. The largest phone operator in Taiwan, Chunghwa Telecom Co, said it would invest up to US$122 million in WiMAX over the next five years, if it is awarded a license for WiMAX spectrum. According to a report in Bloomberg, Chunghwa vice president Mu-Piao Shih said in an interview that “Chunghwa is betting WiMAX.” The report also said that a WiMAX service “may help Chunghwa bolster revenue from mobile gaming and video-sharing as sales decline at the fixed-line and long-distance phone businesses.” Shih added that it would integrate any WiMAX services with its 3G network, because the “two networks complement each other.”

One of the world's bigest telecom companies, Motorola chairman and CEO Ed Zander made a 24-hour visit to Taiwan last month to discuss WiMAX initiatives and cooperation with government and local enterprise. According to the China Times, Zander said Motorola will strongly support the industrial policy of the Taiwan government, and the company will coordinate activities with the Ministry of Economic Affairs to help promote M-Taiwan. Zander also met with executives at Far EasTone Telecommunications (FET) and First International Telecom (FITel). Both companies intend to bid on the forthcoming auction of WiMAX spectrum in Taiwan, and if succesful, will be potential purchasers of Motorola’s WiMAX equipment.

WiMAX Program in Taiwan..

Now I would like to talk about the WiMAX application in Taiwan. As mentioned before, Taiwan is wanting to play a lead role in matters of adopting technology in WiMAX world. It has methodically created a delicated ecosystem to demonstrate WiMAX technology.

In recent years, Taiwan has already own largely to state sponsored incentives and ICT product manufaturing capability. Therefore it also has elevated itself in the overall global market to a enviable position. Supplying the entire range of IT products ranging from semiconductor, computer, consumer electronics and networking products, Taiwan is today considered to be the top ICT manufacture with a very successful WiFi industry enjoying more than 90% of world market share.

In the quest to identify the next generation product, Taiwan government chose WiMAX to open up another frontier in the wireless industry. In 2005, the Science & Technology Advisory Group of Executive Yuan developed a WiMAX blueprint, which states "WiMAX Technology will be a focus for th efuture of Taiwan ICT industry, and will be the preferred technology to deliver M-Service, M-Learning and M-Life in the M(Mobile)-Taiwan Program". The M-Taiwan program and WiMAX acceleration projects, which aim to develop chip set and base stations, were initiated under this blueprint. Towards this, Taiwan offers not only world class manufacturing capability, but also an entire service and application test bed, by forming its own ecosystem.

Forming a complete WiMAX system, including chipset, CPE, network elements, test labs, system integration, application, commercial operation and services, is part of the overall strategy adopted by Taiwan for development of technology. Cooperation with international players, and leveraging the strengths of its indigenous WiFi industry, Taiwan is able to speed up product development, manufacturing and marketing of WiMAX technologies.

To promote global interoperability Taiwan actively participates in international standards and promotes international collaborations. Taiwan has been working closely with the WiMAX Forum in promoting WiMAX and sharing M-Taiwan experiences.

In the short period since its inauguration, 'M-Taiwan' has undeniably achieved significant initial success. With a direct investment of $1.5 billion, Taiwan now has over 80 companies participating in the program, which strengthens the overall value chain of the industry. The early success of the M-Taiwan program proves that to support a new industry, it takes not only adequate demand, solid infrastructure and plentiful supply, but also a fair and competitive environment. The government has been mindful of this from the very inception, and thus has made substantial and meaningful investments to create a desirable and encouraging environment for participation in the program.

Taiwan is moving steadfastly with its planning of WiMAX spectrum and sticking to its original plan to issue a number of regional licenses. This will allow green-field operators to participate in the M-Taiwan program to join the ranks of established operators in providing WiMAX services. Several large scale WiMAX networks are expected to be created this year, making it easier for these networks to provide commercial services in the near future. In addition, the government is considering innovative WiMAX deployment approaches to create Wireless Cities and begin the study of using WiMAX technology for the newly inaugurated Taiwan High Speed Railway system. The M-Taiwan Program ultimately provides an effective template for any other country wanting to utilize WiMAX technology, and will essentially accelerate the WiMAX adoption process in the rest of the world.